Contents

List of Tables and Figures

Acknowledgements

1. Introduction
Political Violence in Western Society
The Five Cases
What are the Consequences of Political Violence?

2. Economic Consequences of Political Violence
Criminal Self-financing
Property Damage
The Cost of Fatalities and Injuries
Government Security Expenditures
The Direct Costs of Political Violence: A Summary
Terrorism and the Economy: The Long-Term Effects

3. Political Violence and the Public
Terrorism and the Elite
Disruption and Fear: Their Effect on the Life of the Public
Measuring the Impact of Political Violence
Government and Administration Control
Law and Order

4. Political Violence, the Media and Public Opinion
Constituencies and Enemies: A Classification of Public Opinion Audiences
How the Media Portrays Terrorism
Terrorism and Public Concern
Public Opinion and Nationalist Violence
Public Opinion and Revolutionary Violence

5. The Politics of Public Order
The Stable Polities: Germany, Italy and Spain
Public Order as an Issue
Conflict and Consensus
Why Parties Disagree
Uruguay: A Revolutionary Situation?
Northern Ireland: An Unresolvable Ethnic Conflict

6. The Electoral Consequences of Political Violence
Who Benefits and Why?
Calculating the Electoral Consequences
Public Order and Realignment in the Spanish
Election of 1982
Alienation in Uruguay
Polarization in Northern Ireland

7. Policies and Outcomes
Towards a Security State?
Polarization and Extremism
Democracy and Reform
Three Patterns of Consequences
What Can Governments Do?
Appendix: Data Sources

Bibliography

Index

List of tables and figures

1.1 Deaths from Political Violence (1968-77) in Selected Western Countries
2.1 Cost of Criminal Self-Financing by Terrorist Groups
2.2 Property Attacks and Estimated Cost
2.3 Distribution of Target by Category and Estimated Cost
2.4 Deaths and Injuries Resulting from Political Violence
2.5 Risk of Death from Various Causes
2.6 Characteristics of Those Killed in Political Violence
2.7 Cost of Deaths and Injuries
2.8 Expenditures on Security as Percentage of budget
2.9 Increased Government Expenditures on Security
2.10 Total Costs by Country
2.11 Impact of Terrorism on GDP and Tourism
3.1 Victims of Political Violence
3.2 The Impact of Violence on Social Activities
3.3 Extent of Breakdown in Normal Policing
3.4 The Social Impact of Violence
4.1 Terrorism as a Problem
4.2 Public Concern in Spain over Terrorism by
4.3 Percentage Holding Positive Image of Nationalist Terrorists by Ethnicity
4.4 Support for Security Measures by Country and Ethnic Group
4.5 Public Attitudes towards Revolution
4.6 Percentage Holding Positive Image of Revolutionary Terrorists
4.7 Support for Security Measures by Country and Party
5.1 Political Acts on Public Order Issues by Country
5.2 Distribution of Seats by Party
5.3 Relative Concern Expressed Over Leftist and Rightist Violence
5.4 Who Was Blamed for Violence by Party
5.5 Political Alignments in Uruguay (1967-73)
5.6 Who Was Blamed for Violence by Political Group in Uruguay
5.7 Who Was Blamed for Violence in Northern Ireland by Party
6.1 Best Party and Party Advantage on Law and Order Issue
6.2 Vote by Ideological Bloc in Italy, Germany and Spain
6.3 Uruguayan Election Results Classified by Candidates Positions
6.4 Election Results in Northern Ireland (1973-82)

Figures

4.1 Terrorism and the Level of Public Concern in Spain (1979-82)

4.2 Support for Irish Unity in Northern Ireland by Religion

4.3 Attitudes towards the Tupamaros

5.1 Public Order as a Political Issue in Germany

5.2 Public Order as a Political Issue in Italy

5.3 Public Order as a Political Issue in Spain

5.4 Party Attitudes to Public Order in Italy, Germany and Spain

5.5 Party Attitudes to Public Order in Uruguay

5.6 Public Order as a Political Issue in Northern Ireland

5.7 Public Attitudes to Public Order in Northern Ireland

5.8 Party Attitudes to Public Order in Britain